The Reason Why Bitcoin’s Largest Corporate Holder Chose Bonds Over BTC This Week (Analyst)

Some market watchers have argued that current bond yields may compete directly with BTC for institutional capital.

Michael Saylor announced this week that Strategy bought back its own convertible bonds rather than adding more Bitcoin, a move that may have seemed puzzling at first but makes sense once you understand the financial logic behind it.

According to crypto analyst Darkfost, the decision reflects a broader warning signal in equity markets: the gap between what stocks and bonds pay has narrowed to its lowest level since the dot-com bubble.

The Equity Risk Premium and What It Means for Bitcoin

The equity risk premium is the extra return investors expect for holding stocks instead of bonds, and when it shrinks, stocks become less attractive relative to supposedly safe fixed-income assets.

Per Darkfost’s analysis, that premium has just hit its lowest reading since 2000. He also added that the situation is not purely about irrational exuberance, considering that yields are elevated while the S&P 500 is trading in price discovery territory, which has compressed the return advantage of equities.

“A capital rotation is coming,” wrote the analyst. “This chart does not say when or how, but it signals the growing risk in the equity market.”

His argument about Saylor is that buying bonds reflects strategy, not second-guessing Bitcoin. The notes being repurchased are Strategy’s own 0% convertible senior notes due 2029, and buying them back at a discount, roughly $1.38 billion for $1.5 billion in face value, reduces future share dilution and improves the balance sheet.

Strategy had agreed to buy back approximately $1.5 billion of these notes, with Bitcoin sales listed as one possible funding source, with Saylor himself not ruling out selling some Bitcoin before year-end during a May 21 interview with Natalie Brunell.

Accumulation on Pause After a Huge Week

The bond repurchase follows one of Strategy’s biggest buying weeks of the year. As CryptoPotato reported, the company acquired 24,869 BTC for about $2.01 billion on May 18.

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That buy brought its total holdings to 843,738 BTC acquired at an average cost of around $75,700 per coin.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,000, down roughly 0.8% over 24 hours and about 39% below its all-time high above $126,000 set in October 2025.

In Darkfost’s view, assets like BTC could benefit if capital does rotate out of equities, although he also pointed out that the same flow could just as easily move toward bonds given their current yield dynamics.

However, what he didn’t question is Saylor’s intention, suggesting that buying your own bonds at a discount, with a clear-eyed read on equity market risk, is not the behavior of someone who has lost the plot.