Some analysts expect an initial dip in BTC’s price even if a peace deal is confirmed before a broader rally resumes.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back toward $78,000 on Monday after analysts tied the latest rebound to easing tensions between the USA and Iran, and the prospect of a broader recovery across risk assets.
Traders who spent much of the past two weeks bracing for another leg down are now watching whether the flagship cryptocurrency can reclaim the low-$80,000 range and drag altcoins higher with it.
Peace Deal Is the Macro Catalyst Crypto Has Been Waiting For
Writing on X earlier today, analyst Michaël van de Poppe laid out the chain of events he expects to follow a Middle East peace agreement:
“Oil goes down. Yields go down. Risk on assets will do well. Bitcoin breaks above $80k+ again. Altcoins will have their time for the entire summer.”
According to him, the concern had been whether BTC could reclaim a key resistance area, which it now appears to have done so.
“From that point on, many charts look like they want to break upwards, and that would be putting crypto back on the map,” he wrote.
The timing of the post matters, considering that Bitcoin had dropped to just above $74,000 on Saturday morning, its lowest point in May, after a new round of threats from President Trump directed at Iran.
The reversal came quickly once Trump himself announced that both sides had made real progress toward a permanent peace deal, with BTC climbing back to around $77,200 before running into resistance.
At the time of writing, the OG crypto was trading near $77,500, which is still well off its 7-day high of roughly $78,000 and down about 38% from its all-time high above $126,000 set in October 2025.
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Meanwhile, over the past year, Bitcoin has lost about 28% of its value.
Trader Sykodelic, posting around the same time as van de Poppe, was cautiously optimistic but warned that a peace deal announcement this week might actually produce an initial dip before any sustained move higher.
“Take out the weekend lows, another go at that $74,000 level, tempt the bears one more time…then we run it up leading into June,” he wrote.
He also noted that Bitcoin had closed the week above both its 50 and 100 simple moving averages and what traders call the bull market support band, which he had been tracking for around three months.
Not Everyone is Rushing to Call the Bottom
Elsewhere, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. flagged a less-than-ideal data point from last week: around 18,000 BTC flowed onto exchanges, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of roughly 16,000 BTC.
“ETF demand did not absorb the exchange inflow. It added to the pressure,” he noted.
Another market watcher, Merlijn The Trader, put a short-term target on the $82,000 to $82,000 range, describing it as a “liquidity cluster” where trapped sellers will face pressure.
But he was explicit that this is where he expects to set up a short position, with a longer target of $67,000 below.
Meanwhile, analyst Dean Crypto Trades had previously argued that BTC needs to reclaim the low $80,000 area, where the 200-day moving average sits, and turn it into a higher low.
Without that, he warned, the recent recovery is just another lower high in a downtrend that has been in place since the October 2025 peak.
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