Key Takeaways:
- Brent crude climbed above $115 per barrel on April 29 as Trump ordered preparations for an extended Iranian naval blockade.
- The IEA called the Strait of Hormuz shutdown the largest supply shock on record, with 20% of global oil flows halted.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady today, with Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation risks in focus.
Iran Blockade Fears Push Brent Crude Higher, Largest Increase Since June 2022
Brent, the international benchmark, climbed above $115 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest level since June 2022, marking an eighth straight session of gains as concerns over global supply intensified. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose above $102 per barrel as well, gaining for the third straight session, supported by mounting uncertainty around global supply as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed.
The Strait of Hormuz normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Since late February, Iran has restricted tanker traffic through the chokepoint to near zero in response to U.S. military pressure. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to tighten the supply outlook.
Peace negotiations collapsed in Pakistan in mid-April without agreement, and a ceasefire that had been in place since early April remains fragile. President Trump said Iran has called for the U.S. to lift its naval blockade while negotiations continue. Trump, writing on Truth Social, told Iran to “get smart soon” and sign a deal, framing the blockade as a lower-risk alternative to resumed airstrikes.
Iran’s economy is reportedly under severe strain. The country is reporting 53.7% inflation, a record-low rial, and millions of job losses linked to the conflict. The Iranian rial crashed to a record low of approximately 1.8 million (or 1.81 million) per U.S. dollar. Tehran has vowed to keep disrupting Hormuz traffic, claiming it can manage through alternative routes.
Washington is stepping up pressure with potential sanctions targeting Chinese refiners and countries paying transit fees through Hormuz. The UAE announced it will exit OPEC on May 1 to gain production flexibility, though analysts say that move does little to ease the immediate supply crunch while Hormuz remains closed.
Prices have swung sharply since the conflict began. Brent neared $120 per barrel at earlier peaks in 2026 before pulling back on ceasefire hopes. The World Bank has forecast energy prices could rise 24% overall this year under prolonged disruptions, the steepest projected increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The average price for a gallon of regular gas has hit $4.229, the highest since Aug. 2, 2022. Fuel costs are heavily influenced by oil prices, which account for more than half of the price at the pump. With refiners now transitioning to pricier summer-blend gasoline, further pressure at the pump is expected heading into peak driving season.
U.S. Equities and Bonds Remain Rattled
U.S. equity markets edged lower on April 29 as the oil rally compounded existing uncertainty. The S&P 500 edged down 0.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.27%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.41%. Hyperscalers Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon, totaling around $11 trillion in market cap, were between 1% and 2% lower ahead of their earnings reports after the bell, set to update their artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure.
Visa was over 5% higher after posting strong results for the last quarter, while Booking dropped 4% on its earnings. Defensive stocks held ground despite fresh oil gains. European markets also softened, with the FTSE 100 off 0.73% and the pan-European Stoxx 600 down 0.4%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ticked up to 4.39%, reflecting inflation worries tied to rising energy costs. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at its meeting today. Chair Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate that policymakers remain data-dependent, with inflation risks elevated while growth remains stable. This is expected to be Powell’s final meeting before his term concludes in May.
The confluence of Big Tech earnings, a Fed decision, and an oil shock driven by geopolitics has left traders with little margin for error. Markets remain fluid. Any breakthrough in U.S.-Iran talks or an agreement to reopen the strait could quickly reverse the oil rally, as prior ceasefire announcements have shown. Until then, traders are watching energy supply data, Fed signals, and geopolitical dispatches closely.
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