Fed’s Williams sees inflation staying above 3%, impacting rate cut expectations

Fed’s Williams expects inflation to remain “well above” 3% in the coming months. The probability of the Fed following a Cut–Pause–Pause rate pattern by April 30 is at ? YES.

Williams’ comments on inflation and the economic impact of ongoing conflicts have shifted market expectations. The market for the Fed’s rate decision pattern by April 30 reflects a more hawkish stance, with traders now less confident in a dovish pivot. Resolution is 14 days away.

The Bitcoin market for April 19 sits almost unchanged at 99.8% YES. Daily volume is $4,447 in actual USDC, and it takes $32,199 to move the market 5 percentage points. Traders still expect Bitcoin to hold above $60,000 despite broader macro pressure.

The flat Bitcoin odds suggest traders have already priced in the inflationary environment and geopolitical risks. But the hawkish tone from Williams could cap further upward momentum unless new catalysts appear, like a ceasefire or rate cuts.

For traders, the main takeaway is that an early Fed rate cut looks harder to justify. A YES share in the Fed market at ? pays $1 if the Fed follows the Cut–Pause–Pause pattern by April 30, which tells you traders don’t see a dovish pivot as likely. Watch for upcoming FOMC statements and oil price movements as the next signals.

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