- A popular crypto enthusiast has predicted that the Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) case could be settled by August 15.
- Renowned lawyer Marc Fage has argued that these are mere speculations as the settlement could be reached earlier or later.
The long-standing legal battle between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs remains ongoing as securities lawyer Marc Fagel attributes the “delayed settlement” to procedural steps rather than negotiations.
According to Fagel, officials at the Commission have to draft enforcement recommendations, subject them to reviews, and schedule them for the Commissioners’ vote. Specifically, this process takes from 1 to 2 months. However, the date for actual settlement continues to be under speculation.
Speaking on the ongoing development, an outspoken enthusiast identified on X as Mark Paul predicted that the much-anticipated settlement has a 70-90% chance of getting finalized by August 15, 2025. Also, he believes that this could be done with a $50 million penalty and no injunction.
However, Fagel argued that the odds of a $50 million penalty and no injunction are zero. According to him, this has already been decided by the court.
The Background of this Development (SEC vs Ripple)
In December 2020, the SEC sued the blockchain company for the sale of unregistered securities (XRP). In mid-2023, Judge Analisa Torres granted a partial win to Ripple, ruling that while XRP sales to retail investors through exchanges did not violate any federal securities laws, its institutional sales did, as explained in our earlier news brief. The judge, therefore, imposed a permanent injunction and a $125 million penalty on Ripple.
In March 2025, both parties involved in the case attempted to resolve this aspect by proposing a significant reduction of the penalty to $50 million, as highlighted in our earlier publication. Not just that. They also requested that the injunction be lifted. However, their joint request was firmly dismissed by the Court, as also detailed in our earlier discussion.
An excerpt of the court’s decision reads:
The parties do not have the authority to agree not to be bound by a court’s final judgment that a party violated an Act of Congress in such a manner that a permanent injunction and a civil penalty were necessary to prevent that party from violating the law again.
The court also informed the parties that they could either withdraw their appeal or proceed with “appellate review of the injunction.” On June 27, Ripple boss Brad Garlinghouse hinted that they are dropping their cross-appeal, hoping that the SEC also drops its appeal as earlier promised, as noted in our previous article.
According to our research, no strict deadline is actually in place for Ripple and SEC to dismiss their respective appeals. However, they are expected to file a status update with the court by August 15. On the specific day a settlement could be reached, Fagel believes that it could take just a few weeks or even months. This implies that any specific date highlighted anywhere is a mere speculation.
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