HBAR breakout continuation faces test as RSI flashes bearish divergence

HBAR has surged 30% off its recent breakout, but a bearish RSI divergence signals waning momentum and the risk of a short-term pullback.

Hedera (HBAR) price recently broke out of a double bottom pattern, breaching the neckline at $0.229 and rallying to a peak of $0.299 on July 18, testing the prior high from early May. This move represents a gain of approximately 30% from the breakout point.

The price has since pulled back slightly and is currently trading around $0.267, consolidating above newly established local support at $0.253. With the measured move target from the double bottom pattern still unmet at $0.333 — calculated by adding the depth of the pattern, ($0.229 − $0.125 = $0.104), to the neckline at $0.229 — there remains potential for further upside once consolidation completes.

However, the RSI is in overbought territory at 73 and has started to turn lower, forming a bearish divergence as price made a higher high while RSI posted a slightly lower high. This suggests waning bullish momentum and the possibility of a short-term pullback or extended consolidation before any another leg up.

On the downside, major support lies at $0.229, the former double bottom neckline. If HBAR price breaks below the $0.253 local support, which has held during the current consolidation, $0.229 will likely contain any further pullbacks.

HBAR’s recent rally was catalyzed by the launch of the Valour Hedera Physical Staking ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange, giving investors regulated access to HBAR and its staking rewards.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is currently reviewing a proposed Hedera ETF by Canary Capital, intended for listing on Nasdaq. The agency recently extended the decision deadline to September. If approved — a scenario analysts view as likely — the ETF could trigger significant buying pressure, potentially driving HBAR’s price higher.

More immediately, Hedera will upgrade its mainnet to version 0.63 on July 23, introducing performance optimizations and backend improvements. While the update is not expected to impact HBAR’s tokenomics or utility, it may reinforce confidence in the network’s reliability.