3 Things That Could Prevent a Bitcoin All-Time High This Year

Bitcoin and crypto markets could face headwinds preventing new peaks if certain scenarios play out, wrote Bitcoin researcher and author Timothy Peterson.

The economist provided the analysis to counter his bullish prediction that BTC could reach $135,000 in the next three months or so. Continued poor or declining sentiment could impact crypto markets should things not improve soon.

The UMich consumer sentiment survey is bad, trending worse, while the AAII investor sentiment is 20% bullish, 60% bearish, “a huge gap and also trending worse,” he observed.

Meanwhile, the NAAIM Equity Exposure index is a respectable 60% allocation to equity, “but still well below the 80% associated with bull markets,” he said.

Three things that could prevent a new Bitcoin ATH.

Thing 1: Continued poor or declining sentiment. UMich consumer sentiment survey is bad trending worse; AAII investor sentiment is 20% bullish, 60% bearish, a huge gap, and also trending worse. NAAIM Equity Exposure index is a… https://t.co/T3jdA3khyn pic.twitter.com/AOVOra1jBb

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) May 3, 2025

The Fed and Event Risk

The Federal Reserve could also impact Bitcoin prices since markets have already priced in approximately three rate cuts for the remainder of 2025.

“Risk assets have rallied on the expectation that looser monetary policy will return, boosting liquidity and supporting higher multiples,” he said before adding Bitcoin’s recent strength reflects this forward-looking optimism.

However, if the Fed fails to deliver these cuts, the market narrative will shift, choking these speculative flows.

“For Bitcoin, which thrives on liquidity and risk appetite, the absence of rate cuts could stall momentum or even trigger a drawdown.”

The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday, May 7.

Finally, event risk, or unforeseen macro-level shocks that cannot be predicted in timing or magnitude, can cause severe disruption to financial markets.

“For Bitcoin, these risks bypass conventional forecasting tools and risk models, creating sharp breaks from trend behavior.”

Peterson cited examples that included nuclear accidents, large-scale terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure, cyberattacks on financial systems, another pandemic, or massive natural disasters.

Bitcoin behaves like a “high-beta asset” under these conditions, “subject to indiscriminate selling, access limitations, and temporary narrative collapse,” he said, concluding the analysis on May 5.

BTC Price Outlook

Doom and gloom aside, Bitcoin was still trading within its rangebound channel, where it has been for the past fortnight.

The asset has swung from below $93,750 in late trading on Monday to retap $95,000 during Tuesday morning trading in Asia.

BTC had retreated slightly at the time of writing when it was changing hands for $94,380, according to CoinGecko.