What’s Next for BTC After Reclaiming $80K Resistance?

Bitcoin is trading above $80k as the first full week of May opens, pressing against the upper boundary of that supply zone that has been the defining ceiling of the recovery. With the 100-day moving average now clearly reclaimed, the structure is the most constructive it has been since the cycle peak, and the on-chain data from the February lows is now beginning to pay dividends.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

Bitcoin has spent several consecutive days holding above the 100-day MA (~$72k), confirming the reclaim rather than treating it as a fleeting wick. The RSI is sustaining in the 60–65 range, which shows healthy momentum without the overbought excess that has preceded prior failed breakouts.

The immediate test is a clean daily close above $80k, which marks both the top of the current supply zone and the higher boundary of the ascending channel. Clearing it opens the path toward $90k, and potentially the $100k area, where the teal resistance band sits. Yet, the 200-day MA declining into the $84–$85k area is also a key technical hurdle along that path.

On the downside, the 100-day MA around $72k and the lower boundary of the channel near $70k are the first support levels to defend on any pullback.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the steeper blue trendline from the early April lows has proven its validity as dynamic support, with price bouncing off it cleanly near $76k before pushing back toward the current highs. The RSI is also still above 50 after dropping rapidly from the oversold zone, amid the recent short-term price drop.

The price is now declining after a decisive rejection from the upper boundary of the ascending white channel around $80k, which aligns precisely with the daily supply zone. A 4-hour close above the $80k region with RSI still below 75 would be a high-conviction breakout signal that opens the door toward the $84k zone.

The blue trendline near $77k remains the key intraday support, and losing it on a closing basis would suggest the upper channel rejection is playing out and shift focus back toward the $74k support level.

On-Chain Analysis

The Miners’ Position Index tells one of the more compelling stories of this recovery cycle. When Bitcoin was grinding through its February lows near $60k, the MPI plunged below -1.0, which is the same threshold that has historically marked periods of miner accumulation rather than distribution.

Miners were not panic-selling into the capitulation; they were holding and absorbing. That behavior has preceded significant rallies historically. With BTC now trading near $79.5k, the MPI has recovered from those lows but is still below zero, which still points to much lower distribution by the miners compared to the market peak.

This reading confirms that miners are not yet selling heavily into this recovery, which removes one of the more significant potential overhead pressures that buyers would need to contend with. If the MPI begins trending above +0.5 as the price pushes higher, it will be worth watching, but for now, the signal is constructive.