Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed as Fed Chair by mid-May

## Market Snapshot Fed Chair Confirmation Predictions are currently pricing in a 96% probability of Kevin Warsh’s confirmation by May 15. Jerome Powell’s departure as Fed Chair by May 14 is priced at 1.6% probability, indicating skepticism about his early exit.

## Key Takeaways – Governor Tiff Macklem’s statement is consistent with increasing confidence in Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair. – Market pricing suggests a low likelihood of Jerome Powell leaving the Fed Chair position by May 14, despite Warsh’s expected confirmation. – The Bank of Canada Governor’s comments could indicate stability in U.S. monetary policy under Warsh’s leadership.

## Article Body Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem expressed confidence in the continuity of U.S. Federal Reserve policy following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Warsh, a former Fed Governor, was nominated by President Donald Trump to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term concludes in May 2026. Macklem’s statement reflects an expectation that Warsh’s leadership will maintain the Fed’s current culture and approach. This announcement comes amidst ongoing Senate confirmation hearings for Warsh, who played a notable role during the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission also announced a ban on Kochava from selling sensitive location data, resolving a lawsuit from 2022.

## Market Interpretation The Bank of Canada Governor’s endorsement appears supportive of a YES outcome for Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair. This development is classified as having a moderate impact on prediction markets, as it reinforces existing sentiment towards Warsh’s confirmation. The continued low probability of Powell’s departure by May 14 suggests that market participants view an immediate transition as unlikely, despite Warsh’s anticipated confirmation.

## What to Watch Attention will be on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee’s actions and any potential procedural developments that could affect Warsh’s confirmation timeline. Jerome Powell’s public statements or any unexpected announcements regarding his future plans could also influence market dynamics. Additionally, political moves by key actors such as President Trump and pivotal senators like Thom Tillis may impact the confirmation process in the coming days.

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