Iran’s Supreme Leader approves Islamabad talks before US-Iran ceasefire deadline

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has approved attending talks in Islamabad, one day before the US-Iran ceasefire expires. The market for an extension by April 21 sits at 33% YES, down from 69% a week ago.

Khamenei’s approval to engage in talks contrasts with the earlier hardline stance from the IRGC, suggesting some internal consensus within Iran’s leadership toward negotiation. The ceasefire market dropped sharply over the past week on skepticism about an extension, but the decision to attend Islamabad talks could reverse that trajectory. Explore the market here.

Volume in this market is $264,370 in USDC traded daily. It takes just $2,773 to move the price 5 points, meaning the market is sensitive to large orders. The biggest single move was a 16-point drop at 2:54 PM, when traders reacted to Trump’s comment that an extension was “highly unlikely.”

At 36¢, buying YES pays $1 if the ceasefire is extended, a potential 2.78x return. The question is whether diplomatic engagement produces results before Wednesday evening.

What to watch: Vice President JD Vance’s Islamabad talks and any statements from Trump’s team or Iranian media indicating progress. Confirmation of extended discussions or positive diplomatic language would likely push extension odds higher.

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