Iran agrees to allow US personnel to collect leftover uranium

Trump announced Iran’s agreement to permit US personnel to collect leftover uranium. The market for “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30” now sits at 44.3% YES, up from 35% just 24 hours ago.

The 4.2-point move suggests traders read Trump’s statement as a concrete step toward a deal, though Iran has not officially confirmed it. A 3-point jump earlier at 5:48 PM accounts for much of the shift. The April 30 deadline is 14 days away, which compresses the window for any formal agreement. Explore the market here.

Daily volume is $65,707 in face value, with $23,824 in actual USDC traded. Depth is moderate: $599 would shift the price by 5 percentage points. A single large order could still move the odds meaningfully, though the current lean is toward a possible agreement.

Trump’s claim remains unverified by Iranian officials, and the market reflects that gap between the statement and any confirmed deal. Buyers at 44.3¢ would see a 2.56x return if resolved YES. That bet requires believing a formal agreement on enrichment can materialize within two weeks.

Signals to watch: official statements from Iranian leaders, any joint US-Iran announcement, IAEA involvement, or a shift in Pakistan-mediated negotiations. Any of these could move the market sharply in either direction.

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