The U.S. has informed Israel that negotiations with Iran have hit a deadlock. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 2% YES, down from 8% just yesterday.
Later markets show sharper declines. The April 15 ceasefire odds fell to 8% YES from 18%. The April 30 market dropped to 24% YES from 40%. The May 31 market now stands at 46% YES, down from 56%. Traders are losing confidence in a quick diplomatic solution.
Trading activity shows a decline. The April 7 market trades $49,062 in USDC daily. The April 15 and April 30 markets see higher activity with $108,755 and $209,093, respectively. The May 31 market, despite lower odds, still trades $169,019 daily. The largest drop was a 4-point decline in the May market, reflecting the news’ impact on trader expectations.
The U.S. statement to Israel highlights stalled progress, fueling bearish sentiment on a ceasefire. Traders expect more military action without a diplomatic breakthrough. For a YES share on the April 30 market at 24¢ to pay out $1, a restart in talks within 28 days seems unlikely given current events.
Watch for any new discussions involving Oman or Qatar as intermediaries. Monitor CENTCOM updates and statements from Secretary of State Rubio or Secretary of Defense Hegseth for potential changes in the military stance.
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