Why Bernstein thinks Bitcoin’s 40% drawdown is just a confidence wobble

Summary

Research firm Bernstein says Bitcoin has likely found a cycle bottom and is reiterated its $150,000 year-end price target, describing the current drawdown as the “weakest bear case” in the asset’s history.
BTC is trading around $70,668, roughly 40% below its all-time high, but Bernstein argues the correction reflects a temporary confidence crisis rather than any structural breakdown.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) — which holds approximately 3.6% of Bitcoin’s total supply, worth around $53.5 billion — has continued buying at recent lows, raising $7.3 billion in 2026 alone to expand its holdings.

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein, which manages approximately $867 billion in assets, declared on March 24 that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bottom is likely in and maintained its end-of-2026 price target of $150,000 — implying more than a 100% gain from current levels — as the firm’s analysts argued the ongoing selloff is categorically different from every bear market Bitcoin has previously endured.

Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani described the current pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” pointing to what the firm sees as a temporary crisis of investor confidence rather than any deterioration in Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals. With BTC trading around $70,668 at time of writing — down roughly 40% from its peak — Bernstein’s conviction remains intact.

A Different Kind of Drawdown

The framing is a deliberate break from how past bear markets have been characterized. Previous Bitcoin cycles saw far more violent collapses: the 2013 peak near $1,150 was followed by an 84% drawdown, the 2017 high of $20,000 preceded a 77% decline, and the 2021 peak near $69,000 gave way to a roughly 70% correction. By comparison, the current drawdown of around 40% looks restrained — and Bernstein argues it is, structurally speaking, far less dangerous.

The key differentiators, according to the firm, are the maturation of institutional flows and a more favorable policy environment. Spot Bitcoin ETF adoption continues to expand, corporate treasury participation is accelerating, and the U.S. political backdrop has shifted in a direction broadly viewed as supportive of digital assets. None of the systemic failures that defined 2022 — collapsed exchanges, insolvent lenders, contagion — are present in the current cycle.

Strategy and On-Chain Signals

Strategy’s continued accumulation at depressed prices is cited as a key supporting data point. The company now holds approximately 3.6% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, valued at around $53.5 billion, and has raised $7.3 billion in 2026 specifically to expand its Bitcoin treasury. Bernstein views Strategy as a high-beta vehicle with a structurally resilient balance sheet, noting that only an extreme scenario — BTC falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years — would require any balance sheet restructuring.

On-chain data adds further context. Analyst Ali Charts pointed to Bitcoin approaching the 0.8 MVRV ratio band, a level situated between $56,000 and $60,000 that has historically served as a launchpad for major rallies: +963% in 2017, +261% in 2018, +1,126% in 2020, and +660% following the FTX collapse in 2022. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan echoed the sentiment, arguing that reduced participation and fading retail interest are “textbook bear market” indicators — but historically, accumulation phases rather than exit points. “A bear market is not a time to give up. It is the time to prepare for the next bull cycle,” he wrote on X.

Where Analysts Diverge

Not everyone shares Bernstein’s confidence. VanEck CEO Jan VanEck told CNBC in early March that while a bottom may be forming, 2026 represents Bitcoin’s typical fourth-year bear cycle, consistent with historical halving patterns. Some traders argue that failure to reclaim and hold above $70,000 could open the door to a deeper leg lower, potentially retesting the $60,000 level that has emerged as the most closely watched structural support.

Bernstein’s $150,000 target, first established when Bitcoin was trading at significantly higher levels, aligns with a broader cluster of institutional 2026 price forecasts that include $150,000 from BSTR President Katherine Dowling and $180,000 from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. Longer term, Bernstein maintains a target of $1 million by 2033.

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