Will ETH Drop Below $1.8K Amid Escalating Macro Uncertainty?

Ethereum is still trading with a heavy bearish bias after the sharp late-January breakdown, and the market is now trying to form a base around the $1.9K area. On the higher timeframe, the price structure remains bearish, and amid the war in the Middle East, any rebound is currently best viewed as a relief move unless ETH can reclaim key resistance levels and flip them into support.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH is still pinned below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, located around the $2,700 and $3,400 marks, respectively. Both moving averages are sloping lower and acting as dynamic resistance. The asset also remains inside a broader descending structure, and the last impulsive leg down left a clear distribution-to-breakdown footprint. The nearest overhead supply zone sits around $2,300K–$2,400 area, where a bearish order block is located.

The constructive part is that ETH has stopped trending lower for now and is building a base above the $1,800–$1,900 support band. Daily momentum is also seemingly stabilizing. The RSI has recovered from oversold conditions and is hovering in the mid zone, which often happens during consolidation phases. Still, the burden of proof is on the buyers, as losing the $1,800 again would reopen the downside toward the next demand zones around $1,500.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, ETH is moving sideways after the capitulation move, and the price action is compressing in a range with defined edges. The line in the sand overhead is around $2,150, which has acted as a repeated pivot/ceiling; buyers have struggled to hold above it, and pullbacks keep dragging the asset back into the range. If ETH can reclaim $2,150 cleanly and hold above it, the next upside magnet is the $2,300-$2,400 supply zone.

Until that breakout happens, the market is still vulnerable to another sweep lower. The key downside level remains the $1,800 base. It has been defended multiple times, but repeated tests weaken support. So, a clean breakdown increases the odds of a fast move toward $1,600, with $1,500 as the deeper capitulation support zone if risk sentiment deteriorates again.

Sentiment Analysis

For the market sentiment read, the Coinbase Premium Index has started to climb back toward (and around) the neutral line after spending an extended stretch in deep negative territory since November 2025. In simple terms, that suggests U.S. spot demand is no longer as consistently discounted versus offshore venues, which can be an early sign that selling pressure is easing and dip-buying interest is returning.

That said, the broader context still matters. The premium recovering while the price remains stuck near $1,900 is more consistent with stabilization than a full trend reversal. If the premium can stay positive while ETH regains $2,150 and pushes higher, it would strengthen the case that spot buyers are back in control. Otherwise, it would signal that the bid is still fragile, and that the market may be setting up for another leg down rather than a sustained recovery.