BTC Tries to Reverse Bearish Mood, but Is $82K Still on the Table?

Bitcoin continues to trade within a decisive corrective structure, pressing against a key resistance block at $91K–$93K after a sharp bounce. Despite the recent recovery, the broader trend remains tilted to the downside, and the daily chart suggests BTC is approaching a confluence area where the next major directional move will likely be determined.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin remains inside a well-defined descending channel, with the price currently testing the mid-range of this structure. The recent rebound from the $80K–$83K demand zone marked the most aggressive buyback of the past month, but the move has stalled right at the lower boundary of the green supply block around $90K–$93K.

The 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to slope downward, sitting above the market and acting as dynamic resistance. As long as the price remains below these MAs, the macro trend leans bearish. The first major invalidation of bearish order flow would only occur with a clean reclaim of the $103K–$106K zone, which sits at the intersection of the larger golden supply region and the previous breakdown structure.

For now, Bitcoin is struggling to break out of the descending trendline. Each advance into the $91K–$93K area has shown weakening momentum, suggesting that the market is not yet ready for a sustained breakout.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the asset has reached a critical resistance range, marked by the $92K bearish order block range and the multi-week descending trendline. If the current resistance holds, a return toward $86K–$88K becomes likely, and deeper liquidity still resides at the $80K–$83K macro demand zone, which remains the strongest support on the chart.

Conversely, a daily close above the $93K level would open the path toward the $102K–$106K inefficiency zone, where the next major reaction is expected. The market is currently positioned at a critical decision point, and the next few weeks will determine whether this bounce evolves into a full retracement or fades into continuation of the broader downtrend.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

While technical indicators highlight the $92K level as the immediate hurdle, on-chain data reveals a formidable “second layer” of resistance slightly higher up, driven by the average cost basis of specific market participants.

The Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands metric is essential for identifying support and resistance, as the realized price of a specific cohort often acts as a psychological barrier. When the spot price trades below these levels, these holders are in a state of unrealized loss. Consequently, as prices rally back to their average cost basis, these investors often look to exit at breakeven, creating substantial sell-side pressure.

Currently, the chart highlights a critical confluence of two distinct cohorts:

The 1-week to 1-month cohort (Green line): representing recent “fomo” buyers or those who caught the falling knife.

The 6-month to 12-month cohort (Orange line): representing medium-term holders who entered earlier in the year.

The realized prices of both these cohorts have converged squarely in the $96K–$97K range.

This confluence serves as a massive resistance block. Even if Bitcoin manages to clear the technical resistance at $92K, the rally is likely to face exhaustion near $96K–$97K as these significant cohorts look to mitigate losses and exit the market.

The overlap of these two age bands amplifies the resistance, as it combines the panic of short-term traders with the capitulation of medium-term investors. A decisive close above $97K is required to signal that the market has absorbed this sell pressure and is ready for higher valuations.