Trader Says Extreme Fear and Death Cross Point to Major Bitcoin Rally

Rastani’s study of past Bitcoin death crosses shows most aligned with major bottoms, reinforcing his bullish view.

Veteran analyst Alessio Rastani is making a bold call, saying that Bitcoin (BTC) is setting up for a powerful upward move. He gave the optimistic outlook with the flagship cryptocurrency trading at around $91,000, up more than 6% in the last seven days, but almost 28% away from its October all-time high (ATH) above $126,000.

The trader’s conviction is rooted in a combination of a classic technical signal and overwhelming negative sentiment, which he believes are creating the perfect conditions for a rebound.

Why Rastani Still Expects a Bounce

Speaking in a recent interview, Rastani said many traders are “jumping the gun” by calling a bear market based only on timing models and the sharp pullback from the October ATH. In his view, the price structure and sentiment tell a different story.

The market watcher examined every Bitcoin death cross, which is where the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day, going back to 2011. He found that about 75% of these signals came close to major bottoms, with BTC typically posting positive returns over the following one to three months.

He added that the pattern is even more reliable when the death cross appears shortly after an all-time high, as happened with the November 15 signal. At the same time, sentiment has swung to what he described as Bitcoin being “extremely hated.” Indeed, the Fear & Greed Index has sat in extreme fear territory for weeks, while social media comment sections have been filled with predictions of a drop to as low as $10,000.

For Rastani, that kind of despair often marks the later stages of a correction, as weaker hands capitulate after buying near the top. His base case is a 15–20% rebound over the next several weeks, with the potential for new highs in early 2026 rather than before year-end.

According to him, the current drop is a correction within a wider uptrend, especially given that Bitcoin is holding long-term support levels and weekly RSI has been deeply oversold.

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Mixed On-chain Signals Temper Bitcoin Bull Case

Other analysts have been more cautious about declaring a bottom, especially with key on-chain metrics like the 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios being negative, showing many traders are still underwater.

Meanwhile, whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been cutting exposure for six straight weeks, raising doubts about a sustained return to six-figure prices.

Derivatives data also paints a fragile picture, with Alphractal founder Joao Wedson recently calling Bitcoin “one of the most leveraged assets in history,” pointing to perpetual futures open interest peaking in October at nearly five times the level seen at the 2021 high.

Binance and Bybit now dominate this leverage-heavy landscape, with longs accounting for around 72% of positions by value.