XRP Ripple is sitting at $1.10, down -3% today. Seven consecutive weeks of net inflows into spot ETFs have pushed cumulative institutional demand to $1.35Bn, yet the price has not broken out.
That gap between sustained buying and sideways price action is the central tension every XRP holder needs to understand right now, with XRP falling closer and closer to $1.
The broader crypto market is recovering on Monday, helped in part by early diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran toward a 60-day peace framework.
That macro tailwind has lifted sentiment, but XRP’s own story is more structural than geopolitical. The ETF bid is real, persistent, and measurable. The question is whether it is a floor or a launching pad.
XRP Ripple News: The ETF Inflow Streak in Context
US spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025, providing investors with a regulated way to access XRP without holding it on a crypto exchange. This was bolstered on March 17, 2026, when the SEC and CFTC classified XRP as a digital commodity, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, alleviating previous legal concerns for Ripple.
Since the classification, ETF inflows have been steady, accumulating $1.45Bn in net demand over seven weeks, with an average AUM of $995M. The latest weekly inflow was $11M, significant given that most other crypto ETFs were experiencing outflows.
For the week ending June 12, XRP ETFs saw about $10.68M in inflows while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana funds faced net outflows. This relative strength amidst a declining market is noteworthy, even if the absolute figures are modest.
Why the Price Has Not Followed the Money
The uncomfortable truth from the inflow data reveals that $1.45Bn in cumulative ETF demand hasn’t led to a sustained price increase for XRP, which peaked at $2.40 in January 2026 and has since dropped about 45%, settling in the $1.10–$1.30 range.
Despite strong ETF inflows during this downturn, institutions appear to be taking “placeholder” positions rather than fully committing.
XRP exchange reserves have plummeted to a seven-year low, indicating that much of the circulating supply has moved into ETF custody and long-term wallets, which is bullish for the long term but reduces active trading supply, compressing volatility.
Additionally, the derivatives market reflects caution, with open interest at $2.55Bn, 77% lower than July’s record, suggesting limited leveraged bets on XRP’s price. Without significant support from derivatives, price breakouts are unlikely to sustain momentum.
GM CT!$XRP is approaching a long-term descending trendline that has acted as a key reaction zone multiple times before.
A successful defense here could spark a strong reversal, while a breakdown may open the door to lower levels.
pic.twitter.com/ipTxBBBrPc
— Crypto Coral (@Crypt0_Coral) June 23, 2026
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Macro Headwinds Are Doing Real Work Here
Anil Oncu, CEO of Bitpace, highlighted key macro constraints: regulation, payments adoption, and altcoin sentiment. He indicated that the Federal Reserve’s signals of prolonged higher interest rates impact investor confidence and make pricing risk assets challenging.
This is particularly relevant for XRP Ripple, as much of the institutional demand for XRP ETFs stems from investors who treat crypto as a high-beta asset. When rate cuts seem unlikely, the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets increases, and tighter liquidity limits available speculative capital.
Geopolitical factors also introduce uncertainty. While the US-Iran peace framework provides temporary relief, ongoing tensions, especially with Israel and Iran, keep the situation volatile.
This geopolitical risk doesn’t directly affect XRP’s fundamentals but does influence traders’ overall risk appetite for altcoin investments.
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Bull, Base, and Bear: Three Scenarios for XRP Ripple Price
Bull case: XRP Ripple reclaims the 50-day EMA above $1.25 on a daily close, triggering short-covering among traders positioned for continued weakness. Momentum builds toward the $1.35 100-day EMA, and a break of the descending trendline near $1.50 shifts the technical structure from corrective to constructive. ETF inflows accelerate, potentially driven by six additional XRP ETF filings from institutions still awaiting regulatory approval, and cumulative AUM pushes well past $1Bn on a sustained basis.
Base case: XRP continues to trade in a $1.10–$1.20 range, with ETF inflows providing a structural floor and macro headwinds capping upside. The seven-week inflow streak extends, but weekly figures stay moderate in the $10–$30M range. XRP grinds sideways as the market waits for a macro catalyst, a Fed pivot signal, a legislative breakthrough on crypto custody rules, or a broader altcoin rotation triggered by Bitcoin dominance declining. No sustained breakout occurs in the near term.
Bear case: Macro conditions deteriorate, either the Fed signals additional rate increases or a geopolitical shock broadly hits risk appetite. Futures OI continues to fade, retail participation stays absent, and XRP loses the $1.10 support level it currently holds. A retest of the $1.10–$1.11 technical floor becomes the immediate concern. If that level fails, the next structural support is lower, and the ETF inflow streak, which has recently averaged only $11M per week, would need to accelerate significantly to absorb the resulting sell pressure.
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The post XRP Ripple ETF Inflows Hit $1.35Bn: Why Hasn’t XRP Price Broken Out? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
Source: https://99bitcoins.com/news/altcoins/xrp-ripple-etf-inflows-price-breakout-analysis/
