Has Bitcoin (BTC) Already Bottomed Out in This Cycle?

Most of the answers we received were quite promising for BTC. Here’s the most interesting part.

Bitcoin’s price nosedived from its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000 to $60,000 by early February, posting a massive 52% decline. This put the asset in a bear market territory, at least according to most analysts, many of whom started to outline even more painful declines for BTC.

The situation worsened as Israel and the USA engaged in direct military conflict last week against Iran, and the cryptocurrency quickly tumbled to its local lows. However, it reversed its trajectory in the following days and rocketed to a monthly peak of $74,000.

Although it failed there, it still trades at around $70,000 as of now, which is more than 15% higher than its early February low. The question we decided to ask Gemini and ChatGPT is whether they believe BTC has already bottomed out during this cycle.

Bottom In?

ChatGPT began by admitting that such a 50%+ decline is “very normal for Bitcoin bull-cycle corrections,” and doesn’t necessarily mean that the asset is in a deep bear market phase. In fact, it noted that the $60,000 low “fits historically as a typical mid-cycle shakeout.”

It put the odds that the bottom is in at 45%, which would mean that the early February crash was the “final capitulation flush.” Some of the reasons supporting this narrative include the completion of a 50% correction, improvements in liquidity and overall sentiment, and a surge in strong buyers at those levels.

If this was indeed BTC’s bottom, the next stages would be a surge to $90,000 before it breaks the psychological $100,000 level. Then comes the “parabolic phase.” Its bold prediction here would be a massive run to a new all-time high between $180,000 and $220,000 this year.

Gemini also agreed to a large extent that the bottom might be in, suggesting that there have been a few leverage crashes already, and added:

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“During that February low, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators and its distance from its 200-day moving average reached oversold levels we haven’t seen since the 2022 bear market or the FTX collapse. The selling pressure simply exhausted itself.”

No Bottom, Not Yet

Although both AIs suggested that the most likely scenarios are that BTC had already bottomed out, they left the door open for another correction, especially if the macro situation worsens.

Gemini said that investors have been rotating out of speculative tech stocks, lingering inflation concerns, and geopolitical tension, which means that the broader institutional appetite for risk-on assets “is currently shaky.”

ChatGPT gave a 20% chance for a “one last brutal flush” scenario, in which the bears resume control of the market and drive the leading cryptocurrency to fresh lows of somewhere between $48,000 and $52,000. However, it noted that there’s a very slight probability of an extreme panic wick to $42,000 but “such a move would likely be very short-lived.”