Bitcoin Mining Capitulation Nears End: Is a BTC USD Price Bottom Forming?

One of the longest, most painful periods of Bitcoin mining stress is finally nearing its end, and the data suggests the worst of the drawdown may be behind us. The Hash Ribbon indicator, a reliable metric for spotting market bottoms, may be dangerously close to a recovery after three months of capitulation. But, is this just a temporary pause, or is a true BTC USD price bottom finally forming? Notably, the 2022 bottom occurred near $15,500 exactly when miners were under peak stress.

Bitcoin is currently trading below its average production cost of approximately $68,000. This is a rare anomaly, where Bitcoin purchases on the open market are for arguably less than it costs a miner to create it.

Capitulation happens when the price of Bitcoin drops so low that it is no longer profitable for miners to keep their machines running. Capitulation is actually a necessary reset button.

When the hash rate recovers, it signals that miners are plugging machines back in because profitability has returned.

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Hash Rate Is Falling: And That Could Be the Best News for Buyers

Bitcoin miners are surrendering and you're STILL waiting for permission to buy? Hash Ribbon just flashed the same signal as Nov 2022 before BTC mooned from $15.5k. The worst phase is OVER. Efficiency is returning. WAGMI or stay poor? LFG. #BTC #HODL

— MoonShot Degen (@degen_moonShot) February 26, 2026

The network’s hash rate has recently dipped versus its longer-term average. This is the mechanism that triggers the buy signal on the Hash Ribbon chart: when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate crosses back above the 60-day average. We are inching closer to that crossover.

When capitulation happens, inefficient miners are forced to unplug their rigs and sell their Bitcoin reserves just to pay for electricity and debt. This creates a temporary wave of intense selling pressure that drives prices down further.

We are seeing this play out right now. However, the Hash Ribbon metricis starting to curl upward, suggesting the miners who survived are stronger and no longer need to panic sell.

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Is BTC USD Price Bottom Actually Forming Right Now?

While the current price is much higher, the recent plunge in mining difficulty mirrors those past cycles. If history repeats itself, the end of this miner selling spree could signal the start of a structural recovery.

So, is the bottom in? The evidence for a price floor is building. When BTC USD trades below that critical production cost, which acts as a “soft floor” for the market, it becomes incredibly attractive to long-term holders. We have seen major support forming around the cost basis of these large network participants.

However, we are not out of the woods yet. The $60,000 psychological level is the line in the sand. If the miner capitulation drags on and the price fails to reclaim the production cost level quickly, the financial stress could force another round of selling from leveraged mining firms.

But here is the bullish flipside: if the Hash Ribbons flash a buy signal and price momentum aligns, we could see a repeat of the post-capitulation rallies of 2019 and 2023. The selling exhaustion from miners removes a massive weight from the market’s shoulders, allowing demand to finally push prices upward.

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Key Takeaways

Mining capitulation occurs when miners turn off machines and sell BTC to survive, typically marking a market bottom.
Bitcoin is currently trading near or below its average production cost of $66,000, a historic “deep value” zone.
The Hash Ribbon indicator is nearing a recovery crossover, which has preceded major rallies in 2015, 2018, and 2022.

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