Analyst Explains Why and Whether It Can Hurt XRP’s Price

Analyst says public XRPL metrics are down 50–80%, but private institutional flows may explain the apparent decline.

XRP Ledger activity has dropped steeply, with public metrics showing active users, payment volume, and sender accounts falling between 50% and 80% within weeks, according to market watcher Arthur.

The data has sparked debate over whether the network is weakening or simply shifting activity away from public dashboards after a new institutional trading feature went live.

Public XRPL Stats Fall

In a thread posted on X on February 23, Arthur said active users with tags fell to about 38,000 from more than 200,000, while payment volume dropped to roughly 80 million XRP from over 2.5 billion. Additionally, unique sending accounts slid to about 3,000 from above 40,000, with the analyst describing the figures as “bad” but arguing they may not reflect real network demand.

He linked the drop to the February 18 activation of XLS-81, a permissioned decentralized exchange system that allows regulated entities to trade inside restricted pools. Transactions routed through those channels do not appear on public trackers. Furthermore, he suggested the late-2025 spike in activity came from retail flows visible on-chain, whereas institutional flows could now be moving privately.

At the same time, the XRP advocate criticized viral price forecasts, such as a February 22 post from trader CryptoBull2020 predicting XRP could hit $15 by March and $70 by May. He argued that liquidity and macro conditions matter more than social media optimism.

The asset was trading near $1.39 at the time of writing, down about 2% in the last 24 hours, 5% in seven days, and 27% over the past month. Across the last year, it has fallen by more than 46% and is now more than 60% below its July 2025 peak of $3.65.

By comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) has mostly ranged sideways recently, according to pseudonymous analyst Darkfost, which they said has limited direction across altcoins.

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Darkfost also reported that more than 31 million XRP moved into wallets on Binance in a single day, largely from large holders. They estimated the transfers could represent about $45 million in potential sell pressure if the funds reach the market.

Loss Data and Valuation Metrics Offer Mixed Signals

A recent report from Santiment adds longer-term context, saying XRP recorded its largest realized loss spike since 2022 after falling from about $3.60 to near $1.10 earlier this month. The firm noted that similar spikes previously came right before a 114% price rise within eight months, though it did not predict that pattern would repeat.

In another analysis, Santiment compared MVRV ratios to rank Ethereum as the most undervalued major crypto at -14.3%, followed by Bitcoin at -6.9%, with XRP at -4.1%. The metric measures whether holders are in profit or loss relative to their cost basis.