This Crypto Winter Much Healthier Than Previous Cycles: Bitwise CIO

The current bear market is not as bad as those from previous years, according to Matt Hougan. 

“The folks saying this [crypto] winter is worse than 2018 or 2022 don’t remember 2018 or 2022,” said Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan on Tuesday.

In 2018, “we had $3,000 Bitcoin and a ‘global computer’ [Ethereum] with no applications and limited throughput,” he said before adding, “In 2022, we had a total market collapse and a regulator that wanted to put us out of business.”

Things are a little different today as we have “stablecoins going to $3 trillion, tokenization going to $200 trillion, a positive regulatory climate, and better tokenomics,” he said.

Additionally, BlackRock and Apollo are building on DeFi, there is a “massively built out infrastructure,” ETFs, and “rising concerns about fiat currency.”

“So, yep, I’m optimistic. It doesn’t mean smooth sailing, but I’m excited for the ride.”

Previous Bear Markets Were Apocalyptic

The current bear market has seen total capitalization decline 49% from its peak of just below $4.4 trillion in October to its low of $2.23 trillion on Feb. 6. This is much shallower than previous bear markets, but it is not over yet. In 2018, markets collapsed by 88%, and in 2022, they crashed by around 73% from the previous cycle peak to the bear market bottoms.

The 2022 FTX crash “was dark,” and 2018 “was borderline crypto extinction sentiment,” commented the Kobeissi Letter. The March 2020 Covid crash was also apocalyptic, with markets tanking 56% in less than a month.

The difference this time, as pointed out by Hougan, is that the fundamentals for crypto are much stronger. Many analysts believe the current market slump is driven not by crypto-native factors but by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.

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Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 on Feb. 6 “imposed drastic psychological pressure on ‘diamond hands’ comparable to the May 2022 Luna crash.”

“Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses — a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.”

The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant… pic.twitter.com/xc6bXzwPYx

— glassnode (@glassnode) February 16, 2026

Long Term Holders Still in Profit

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said on Monday that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders stands at 0.36, “meaning long-term holders are still, on average, in profit.”

“When Long-Term Holders’ NUPL enters negative territory, it means even the most convicted participants are holding unrealized losses. Historically, this marks the phase of maximum market depression.”

In previous cycles, “this was the final phase before the start of a new bull run,” he said, noting that we are not there yet.

Bitcoin was trading around $68,000 at the time of writing after failing again to top $70,000 on Monday.