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The 2025 crypto bull run is showing signs of strain as heavy outflows from investment products fuel debate over whether the rally is over or merely taking a pause.
BitPinas is partnering with EveryX to add market sentiment data and predication-based insights to our crypto and web3 coverage.
Is the 2025 Bull Market over?
A prediction market on EveryX is split on whether the 2025 Bitcoin bull market has ended, with traders giving an even 50–50 probability to both outcomes as of November 24.
The market asks participants to forecast whether Bitcoin will trade above its all-time high of $126,080, as recorded by CoinGecko, at any point before 23:59 UTC+8 on December 31, 2025.
The market currently has 27 participants and 37 days remaining before it closes.
Under the platform’s rules, the market resolves to “Yes” if Bitcoin fails to break its previous peak before the deadline. It resolves to “No” if the cryptocurrency sets a new all-time high within the year.
Data from the popularity chart shows fluctuating sentiment earlier in November before stabilizing at the current evenly split outlook.
Argument: Mixed Signals in the Market
The trajectory of the 2025 crypto market is becoming harder to read. Investors and analysts are split on whether the bull run is advancing in a more complex form or slipping into a downturn.
Recently, Bitcoin has fallen more than 26% from its October record, dropping below $92,000 as liquidations, profit-taking, and historical halving cycle timing raise concerns about whether the decline is a temporary correction or the start of a deeper downturn.
- Accordingly, analysts remain divided, with Bernstein citing institutional ETF demand and policy support as signs of short-term consolidation, while 10X Research warns that stalled buying and macro pressure could signal a cycle-level sell-off.
In a Facebook post, GCash Executive and GCrypto Head Luis Buenaventura stated that the current drop contradicts what global conditions suggest.
“This is the reason why the Bitcoin dump feels so counterintuitive. Everything that we know about the macro trajectory points to a rally, but the markets register nothing but fear. But I guess Bitcoin is paying for all of its overleveraged dominance this year, more than anything.”
Luis Buenaventura, Executive, Gcash, and Head, GCrypto
In another report, it was noted that crypto investment products recorded nearly $2 billion in outflows in early November which marked the third consecutive week of heavy withdrawals and brought total redemptions over three weeks to $3.2 billion.
- Moreover, the U.S. accounted for 97% of the outflows, highlighting weakening institutional sentiment, while Switzerland and Hong Kong contributed smaller amounts.
- Investors also shifted into multi-asset funds and increased short-Bitcoin exposure, suggesting a move toward hedging rather than accumulation.
- Assets under management have fallen from $264 billion in early October to $191 billion, a 27% decline that has erased gains from the mid-year rally.
Analysts say part of the pullback reflects historical late-cycle exhaustion, as bull markets typically cool 12–18 months after a halving.
- The future of the market will depend on macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, institutional inflows, and year-end investor confidence, with analysts warning that both ETPs and spot markets may remain under pressure unless new catalysts emerge.
In September, market strategist Gareth Soloway projected that Bitcoin could drop to around $75,000 per coin, likely by early 2026, but he remains optimistic about its long-term prospects, expecting the cryptocurrency to recover later.
Argument: Bull Run To Continue
Analysts who argue the bull market is still intact say the recent slide fits the pattern of a typical correction rather than the end of a cycle.
Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao said sharp reactions to price drops are common in markets and urged investors to stay calm.
“Every dip, some people think it’s the end of time. Time continues.”
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, Founder and Former CEO, Binance
In an X post, Ran Neuner, founder of Crypto Banter, said the current downturn does not resemble the end of previous market cycles. He said past peaks unfolded after major failures or a collapse in confidence.
He pointed to the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and earlier crypto winters as moments when systems broke or investors questioned the viability of the technology. He noted that 2025 looks different because governments are adopting Bitcoin, institutions are integrating blockchains, and global markets remain strong.
“We have had a 25% correction as is normal for any Bitcoin cycle, even this one and now sentiment is bottomed. New hands are fearful and funding rates have finally turned negative. Now you have a choice to make. Are you buying in the same conditions that have made millionaires so many times or are you bear posting for clout. I know what I’m doing. All-In.”
Ran Neuner, founder, Crypto Banter
Argument: Bull Run Might be Ending
On the other hand, a report from CryptoNews suggests the bull run may be nearing its end. Analysts in the report point to chart patterns that mirror the start of previous major downturns and warn that Bitcoin could be entering the early stages of a new correction cycle.
Recent data shows Bitcoin hit a record high in October before losing momentum, a timing that resembles earlier cycles that later turned into long downturns. In past peaks, the asset dropped 77% to 84%, and chart watchers say a similar slide could stretch into 2026 if the pattern repeats.
The report noted that an 80% drop from the recent high would place prices back in the mid-$20,000 range, following the familiar sequence of a peak, a reversal, and a long correction.
- It added that while Bitcoin ETFs and institutional inflows might soften any fall, new risks such as companies needing to sell to cover debt could add pressure.
Bear Market Onset?
According to a report from Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin has officially entered a bear market, trading around $96,000, more than 20% below its October record high of over $125,000. Analysts say the decline is driven by a combination of ETF outflows, long-term holders selling at highs, and a lack of new buyers stepping in.
Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré noted that the biggest daily ETF outflows since inception have contributed to the recent selling pressure, and analysts are closely watching the $93,000 level, below which a sharper decline could occur.
“Well, we know what’s not driving a rally in crypto right now and that’s very important because on October 10th, you had that liquidation event which spooked investors, but you’ve also had long-term holders, whales that have been selling at the highs and they like to buy at the lows and they’re not stepping in.”
Ines Ferré, Senior Reporter, Yahoo Finance
Ferré added that expected liquidity from government measures may be delayed, while uncertainty over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts further weakens near-term support for crypto.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $87,538.67, down 21.1% over the past month and 27.3% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached on October 6, 2025.
Is a New Bull Run Brewing?
In another report, they noted that the cryptocurrency market may be nearing the end of its recent crash, with several indicators pointing to a potential new bull run.
The article pointed out that Bitcoin dropped to $80,000, and total crypto market capitalization fell to $2.90 trillion, with major altcoins losing over 12% in the past seven days.
Indicators suggest a potential recovery, including the Fear and Greed Index hitting a year-to-date low of 10, and the market becoming oversold, with the Relative Strength Index at 24. Futures open interest has declined to $123 billion from over $320 billion, while liquidations since October 10 have exceeded $40 billion, signaling reduced leverage and a healthier market.
The article also noted other factors that could support a rebound include possible Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising M2 money supply, and continued altcoin ETF approvals.
This article is published on BitPinas: Crypto Bull Run 2025: Has the Rally Peaked or Just Paused?
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