TechCrunch Mobility: Searching for the robotaxi tipping point

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Before we jump in, a quick housekeeping item. The transportation newsletter won’t run next Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. 

For U.S. readers, I hope you have a safe and drama-free holiday filled with family and friends, delicious food, and long walks. Good luck to those traveling. For all of my international readers, I haven’t forgotten about you. But we all need a little break. I’ll be back the following week. 

In the past week, there has been a flood of robotaxi news, mostly driven by Waymo’s flurry of expansion announcements. 

Waymo, which has a commercial robotaxi service in Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco, has added more cities to its list. It will manually start driving (a precursor to driverless testing and deployment) in Minneapolis, New Orleans, and Tampa next year. Other cities that the Alphabet-owned self-driving company plans to deploy in 2026 are Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami (it just removed safety drivers), Nashville, Orlando, San Antonio, San Diego, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. It’s also testing in New York City and plans to offer commercial rides internationally starting with London and Tokyo.

Waymo wasn’t the only company to make some AV news. Tesla received a ride-hailing permit in Arizona — the last regulatory hurdle to launch a robotaxi service there. And Zoox is starting to open its custom-built robotaxis to the public in San Francisco through its early rider program.

All of this has me poking at the question: When will robotaxis reach a tipping point that will lead to fundamental changes in how people think about moving from Point A to Point B? And perhaps more unclear, is how will that affect society and industries (old and new)? I can’t answer the second question, but I have some baked ideas about the first one.

In short (and in my view), we are not there yet. 

It’s not just about the volume of one player. Waymo’s rapid deployment will certainly introduce the idea and experience to more people. But it’s not quite enough. 

Here is what it will take, from my perspective: geography, competition, and an ecosystem spillover effect. Certain cities are simply going to carry more weight societally than others — at least when it comes to reaching that tipping point. Saturation in San Francisco is meaningful, but it’s also a region that is a literal incubator of technology. To me, robotaxi saturation in densely populated cities in the Southeast and East Coast, as well as in mid-tier cities in the Midwest, will be the tipping point indicator. 

I am also looking for that startup spillover effect, in which an ecosystem of startups and businesses is launched and supported because of robotaxis. Service-related businesses are an obvious one. But even startups like Point One Navigation, which developed precise location technology and is in our Deals section, would qualify under my definition. 

And finally, competition. This matters for several reasons, including that it can drive down prices for the user and introduce different business models.

So, what do you think? Sign up for the Mobility newsletter to vote in this week’s poll, where we ask: When do you expect robotaxis to reach a tipping point of mass adoption that will affect how people move from Point A to Point B?

A little bird

Many little birds have been chirping in senior reporter Sean O’Kane’s ear this past week about electric autonomous startup Monarch Tractor. Some of them shared an internal company memo that shows the startup is precariously close to shutting down. 

In the memo, execs warned staff it may need to lay off more than 100 employees or possibly even “shut down.” Reminder: Monarch has raised at least $220 million since it was founded seven years ago. It went through a restructuring in late 2024 in an effort to cut costs and expand into new areas, including licensing its autonomous tech. That turnaround plan is underway, but Monarch may run out of cash before it can make real headway. 

The company is also facing legal problems. A dealership in Idaho sued Monarch for breach of contract and allegedly violating its warranty because the California-based startup’s tractors were “unable to operate autonomously.” 

Got a tip for us? Email Kirsten Korosec at [email protected] or my Signal at kkorosec.07, or email Sean O’Kane at [email protected]. 

Deals!

Autonomy, the EV subscription company founded by Scott Painter, secured $25 million in financing to acquire about 1,250 vehicles to expand beyond its previously all-Tesla fleet, the company told TechCrunch in an email. Autonomy’s fleet will now include Volvo and Polestar, as well as additional Tesla options.

Pionix, a Germany-based EV charging technology startup, raised €8 million in seed funding led by Ascend Capital Partners. Startup BW Seed Fonds, Pale Blue Dot, Vireo Ventures, and Axeleo Ventures also participated.

Point One Navigation, a San Francisco-based startup that has developed technology to give precise location within 1 to 3 centimeters, raised $35 million in a Series C round led by Khosla Ventures. The company’s post-money valuation is now $230 million, according to one insider familiar with the deal.

Japanese self-driving tech startup Turing raised about ¥15.3 billion ($97.7 million) in equity and debt. It raised ¥9.77 billion ($62 million) in a round co-led by JIC Venture Growth Investments, a government-backed fund, and VC firm Global Brain Corporation. Additional investors include GMO Internet Group, Denso, and other unnamed firms. Turing also secured ¥5.5 billion in syndicated loans arranged by Mizuho Bank.

Sortera, a startup that developed a system to separate aluminum grades with over 95% accuracy, raised $20 million in equity and $25 million in debt in a round led by VXI Capital and accounts advised by T. Rowe Price, with participation from Overlay Capital and Yamaha Motor Ventures.

Notable reads and other tidbits

Ford has joined Amazon Autos, which will allow customers to shop for, finance, and purchase certified pre-owned vehicles on the site. Meanwhile, Ford was hit with a potential setback after another fire broke out at the Novelis aluminum plant in Oswego, New York. The factory supplies sheet metal for Ford’s trucks, including its all-electric F-150 Lightning.

Google continues to push Gemini to as many devices as possible, including the car. Gemini will replace Google Assistant in Android Auto, the smartphone projection technology integrated into millions of cars, trucks, and SUVs. 

Another legal brawl has started in the nascent electric aviation industry. Joby Aviation is suing Archer Aviation over allegations its rival used stolen trade secrets extracted from a former employee to interfere in its business. Read details of the lawsuit and Archer’s response here.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 CEO and team principal Toto Wolff sold a portion of his holdings in the team to CrowdStrike founder and CEO George Kurtz.

Pony.ai launched a fourth-gen autonomous truck lineup that was jointly developed with Sany Truck and Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor. The company plans to deploy the trucks in 2026.

Stellantis’ long-delayed Jeep Recon will go into production next year. My article goes beyond the specs (although those are in here too) and digs into why its launch is so surprising. 

Tesla is getting better at reporting FSD data, but…, The Verge reported.

Toyota has upped its bet on hybrid vehicles in the U.S. with plans to invest $912 million in five factories to expand production.

Uber Eats has partnered with sidewalk delivery robot company Starship Technologies to deliver food in the U.K. starting later this year.

Volvo canceled a five-year-old contract with Luminar, the latest escalation in a bitter fight between the lidar sensor company and its biggest customer. 

The Washington Post’s article on the deadliest roads in America includes an interactive feature that lets you pinpoint hot spots in cities across the United States.

One more thing …

I’ve got a little something for all the automated driving jargon nerds out there.

The Autonocast, a podcast I co-host with Alex Roy and Ed Niedermeyer, recently recorded an interview with Bryant Walker Smith, in which we talked about how the SAE levels came to be, how he hopes to improve them, and his latest paper “Self-Driving” Means Self-Driving (which I shared a few weeks ago). Check out the episode here.