Ethereum’s (ETH) 45% Drop Sets Stage for Bigger Upside This Cycle

Ethereum falls 45% since its ATH to $2,650, enters key support zone. Analysts now expect a new wave targeting $8,800 if support holds.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading below $2,700 after a sharp drop from its August 2025 high of around $4,950. The correction, now over 45%, has brought the price into key technical areas that analysts say could support a market rebound. Several traders have adjusted their market outlooks, now expecting a longer cycle and higher upside targets.

Daily volume sits at $50.3 billion. Ethereum is down 10% in the past 24 hours and nearly 15% over the past week. This move has brought ETH into areas where previous buyer interest was strong.

Structure Shifts to Wave 2

StockTrader_Max posted an updated Elliott Wave count showing that ETH has broken into its previous Wave 1 range. This rules out a Wave 4 correction and suggests a Wave 2 retracement is now underway. These types of pullbacks usually happen earlier in a cycle.

“ETH is already at the 0.618 FIB… this is an area where I expect to see a low form,” the analyst noted.

Notably, the 0.618 retracement level sits around $2,748. It often acts as support in trending markets. Based on this count, the next move — Wave 3 — could target $8,800. That replaces a prior estimate of $6,000 for the end of Wave 5.

Price Nears Major Support Zone

Bleeding Crypto shared a chart showing ETH inside a wide Fibonacci support zone. This area includes the 0.618 level at $2,748, the 0.706 level at $2,433, and the 0.786 level at $2,147. These zones line up with a price range where ETH traded sideways earlier this year.

The drop has brought ETH back into this prior consolidation range. That kind of structure has provided support in the past. The correction is deep but within the range of past cycles. If the asset stays in this area, it could form a base for future moves.

In addition, Ash Crypto posted that Ethereum has now filled a CME gap on the daily chart. It was left open for about four months, and it was between $2,850 and $3,000.

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“Most CME gaps are filled before a big move,” the post said.

Meanwhile, some traders see this as a technical step often completed before a shift in trend. The price is now in a key area, and watching volume and structure will be important in the next sessions.

$2,800 Flips From Support to Resistance

Ted pointed out that ETH has dropped below $2,800 and touched $2,650.

“If ETH doesn’t reclaim the $2,800 level soon, expect a drop towards the $2,500 level,” he wrote.

This zone is also where realized prices of several wallet groups converge. That adds weight to it as a key level. If the market holds this range, it may offer a short-term bottom. If not, lower targets will stay in view.