Bitcoin’s breakout isn’t about the Fed, it’s about market structure: analysts

Bitcoin’s record-breaking climb past $118,000 isn’t tied to Fed policy or equities. Instead, analysts say spot ETF demand and corporate treasury strategies are driving this historic move. Meanwhile, altcoins are surging in BTC’s wake.

Bitcoin (BTC) shattered its previous all-time high of $116,000 on July 11, peaking at $118,872 before settling near $117,300, pulling a 3% daily gain that masked the frenzy beneath the surface. Ethereum (ETH) outpaced BTC with a 7% surge, reclaiming $3,000 for the first time since February, while memecoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) posted double-digit rallies.

According to Thomas Perfumo, Kraken’s global economist, Bitcoin is “breaking a months-long range” and entering fresh territory for price discovery. Perfumo noted that over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours alone, while Bitcoin dominance slipped slightly—a rare sign that altcoins are leading the charge.

“Concurrently, strength in U.S. equities, currently trading at or near all-time highs, is showcasing a robust risk-on environment, a supportive backdrop for crypto,” Perfumo said in a statement obtained by crypto.news on Friday.

With Bitcoin dominance dipping to 54%, the market is witnessing a rare convergence, one where institutional accumulation and derivatives chaos fuel gains across the board, not just at the top. The question now isn’t whether macro matters, but whether crypto’s market mechanics have permanently decoupled from traditional triggers.

Market structure, not macro, is steering the rally

What distinguishes this rally from previous surges is its foundation. Analysts aren’t pointing to central banks or macro volatility as the spark. Instead, they’re watching structural flows inside the crypto market itself, most notably the direct impact of spot ETF demand.

Bitcoin ETFs logged their biggest single day of inflows in 2025 on Thursday, pulling in $1.18 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Ethereum ETFs followed suit with their second-strongest performance of the year at $383 million. These are not speculative futures bets or proxy trades through microcap equities. They are direct, capital-intensive commitments to spot assets.

Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, views the breakout through that lens.

“In my view, this isn’t a macro-driven rally, but rather an isolated event. That said, recent U.S. policy developments such as fiscal expansion and expectations of further monetary easing have created a backdrop that is undeniably favorable for Bitcoin. We’re seeing Bitcoin treasury strategies proliferate across companies, which reflects growing institutional confidence in BTC as a balance sheet asset,” he also said in a statement sent to crypto.news.

Sondergaard emphasized that Bitcoin’s clean break through key liquidation levels, and its ability to hold above them, acted as a trigger point for this latest market-wide rally.

What comes next hinges on sustainability. Past rallies relied on macroeconomic tailwinds. This one is testing whether crypto’s internal mechanics, such as ETF flows, corporate adoption, and derivatives markets—can independently support valuations. If so, we may be witnessing the birth of a new market paradigm, one where crypto writes its own rules.