This Overlooked Binance Metric Might Predict Bitcoin’s Next Major Move

Bitcoin has mostly traded between $105,000 and $110,000 this month, hovering near its all-time high. Yet on Binance, perpetual futures prices continue to lag behind spot prices.

The continued negative Spot-Perpetual Price Delta on Binance since December 2024 reveals a structural imbalance.

Spot Leads, Futures Lags

In its latest analysis, CryptoQuant explained that this negative delta indicates the spot price of Bitcoin has consistently traded above perpetual futures prices. This means that the current rally is being driven largely by spot buyers rather than leveraged futures traders on Binance.

When the delta initially flipped from positive to negative in December, Bitcoin reached its then-all-time high, with aggressive long positioning on Binance’s perpetual markets, while the spot price trailed. Even after BTC’s decline to $74,000 and subsequent recovery to a new peak, the delta has remained negative. Such a trend highlights that perpetual markets are still not fully participating in the upside momentum.

This behavior could reflect a cautious environment among leveraged traders, which could mean that the market is in an accumulation phase where supply is absorbed gradually by spot buyers before a potential continuation of the rally.

Importantly, the current structure implies a healthier rally as it is not being driven by excessive leverage, which reduces the risk of sharp liquidations that can destabilize the price. However, a flip in the delta from negative to positive would signal an influx of leveraged longs, as it is often a precursor to local tops or corrections, since liquidity becomes an attractive target for market makers and whales.

As such, while spot demand remains strong, the market’s next phase will likely be defined by how and when Binance’s perpetual markets catch up, with the delta acting as a key signal for potential volatility ahead.

Accumulation by Institutions

Against this backdrop of spot-driven strength on Binance, Bitfinex Alpha’s latest report revealed that bulls are maintaining structural control.

Bitcoin has defended the short-term holders’ realized price of $98,220, hinting at constructive bullish momentum even amid volatility. The rising STH cost basis near $99,474 indicates continued accumulation by newer participants. This includes institutions via ETFs.

Meanwhile, whales are distributing holdings and have offloaded over 14,000 BTC since June 30, while retail and institutions absorb supply, thereby driving momentum amid macro uncertainty and equity market strength.