Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is currently a favored candidate to become the next pope on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket.
Prediction Market
Although Pope Francis only recently died on April 20, 2025, the prediction market for selecting the next pope has been active since February 25, at 8 a.m. It currently has a volume of $3,282,687 and is expected to end by December 31.
As of writing, a “yes” vote for Cardinal Tagle costs $0.23, while a “no” vote costs $0.779. The volume for votes on him stands at $268,552.
The Top Five Potential New Pope, As Per Polymarket
At the time of writing, Cardinal Pietro Parolin tops the prediction board with a 34% chance, followed by Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle at 23%. Cardinals Matteo Zuppi and Péter Erdő hold 10% each, while Cardinal Peter Turkson has an 8% chance.
Top 1: Pietro Parolin
- Nationality: Italian
- Current Role: Vatican Secretary of State
- Age: 70
As the Vatican’s top diplomat, Parolin plays a key role in the Church’s global affairs and governance. He is seen as a moderate and a “continuity candidate,” having served as Vatican secretary of state since 2013 and as a close ally of Pope Francis.
Top 2: Luis Antonio Tagle
- Nationality: Filipino
- Current Role: Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization
- Age: 67
He is the former archbishop of Manila. If he succeeds Pope Francis, he would be the first Asian pope. Cardinal Tagle was once seen as a favored successor to Pope Francis and is aligned with his progressive vision. He has advocated for a more compassionate approach toward gay and divorced couples but remains opposed to abortion rights.
Top 3: Matteo Zuppi
- Nationality: Italian
- Current Role: Archbishop of Bologna, President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference
- Age: 69
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, appointed by Pope Francis in 2019, is part of the Church’s progressive wing and is viewed as a likely continuer of the late pope’s legacy, especially in advocating for the poor and marginalized. He holds relatively liberal views on same-sex relationships and is known for his pastoral style and peace efforts.
Top 4: Péter Erdő
- Nationality: Hungarian
- Current Role: Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Primate of Hungary
- Age: 72
He is a leading conservative figure known for his strong defense of traditional Catholic teachings. Seen as a potential shift away from Francis’ progressive approach, he is respected for his intellect, cultural depth, and expertise in canon law.
Top 5: Peter Turkson
- Nationality: Ghanaian
- Current Role: Chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences and Social Sciences
- Age: 76
If chosen, Cardinal Turkson, one of the most prominent African cardinals, would be the first Black pope in centuries. He is known for his advocacy on climate change, poverty, and economic justice. He also upholds traditional Church teachings on the priesthood, marriage, and sexuality, though he has criticized harsh anti-LGBTQ+ laws in Africa. Turkson has also spoken out against corruption and for human rights.
Beyond the top five contenders, several other cardinals are actively part of Polymarket’s papal prediction market. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa holds an 7% chance. Others, like Cardinals Robert Sarah (3%), and Raymond Burke, Jean-Marc Aveline, Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, and Marc Ouellet (each 1%), show lower odds but still draw considerable market attention.
Notably, candidates like Mario Grech, Wim Eijk and Angelo Scola attract large volumes despite having odds of less than 1%, while a separate bet on “No new pope in 2025” has surpassed $1 million in volume.
How the Papal Conclave Elects a New Pope?
After a pope dies, cardinals from around the world gather in Rome for daily meetings called general congregations to discuss Church matters and the qualities needed in the next pope.
Only cardinals under the age of 80 can vote in the conclave, although those over 80 may join the discussions. Traditionally, a 15-day mourning period is observed before the conclave begins, but a rule change by Pope Benedict in 2013 allowed it to start earlier or up to 20 days after the pope’s death, depending on travel needs. Much of the decision-making happens through private conversations among cardinals.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market platform, where users can bet on the outcomes of future events across a wide range of topics—such as politics, entertainment, sports, and global news.
Instead of betting against a house, users buy and sell shares in event outcomes (like “YES” or “NO”), with prices ranging from 0.01 to 1.00 $USDC. These prices reflect the market’s current belief about the probability of an event happening. For example, if a “YES” share trades at $0.18, the market estimates an 18% chance of that outcome.
Each pair of outcome shares is fully collateralized by 1.00 $USDC. If your prediction is correct, your share pays out $1.00. Bettors can also trade shares before the event concludes to lock in profits or cut losses.
This article is published on BitPinas: Crypto-Based Prediction Platform Polymarket Predicts Filipino Cardinal Tagle as Top Papal Contender
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